Jesus Montero congratulates Justin Smoak, something Mariners fans hope to see for many years
Starting now, I’m recalibrating my expectations for the 2012 Angels. Until they show they’re capable of playing good baseball for more than two consecutive days, I’m expecting nothing and certainly not hoping for 6-1 weeks, like I did last week.
This is easily my least favorite Angels team I’ve ever watched (other than Mike Trout, who’s as good as advertised) because they seem to find different ways to lose every game. I picked them to win the World Series not because I’m a homer, but because I really thought this team was loaded with talent. Well, I still think this team is loaded with talent but that hasn’t exactly mattered. So from now on I’m not going to let myself be surprised when Tyson Ross shuts them down, or when Pujols goes 0-4 with three strikeouts, or when Erick Aybar makes a game-deciding error. In other words, I’m not letting this team ruin my summer; I’ll let The Dark Knight Rises do that, if it sucks.
This week, the A’s and Mariners have easy schedules as they both host the Angels. First up, the Angels visit the A’s and their concrete jungle, apparently known simply as The Coliseum. The A’s website boasts, “The Coliseum provides a memorable setting for any outdoor event,” which would be true if they were talking about lions gnawing on fallen gladiators, but since they’re talking about A’s baseball it’s probably a lie.
I’ve talked about the A’s enough so far this season and there isn’t much new to report after last week, except the Angels have the good luck of avoiding A’s ace Brandon McCarthy this week, as he was just sent to the DL because of a bum shoulder. Also, the Angels won’t face him this week, but Manny Ramirez is eligible to join the A’s on May 30, thus fulfilling his 50-game suspension for using performance enhancing drugs. You probably forgot the A’s even signed him; I know I did. It will be interesting to see if he has anything left in the proverbial tank. When Manny was being Manny, he was on the short list of guys I was most afraid to see Angels pitchers face.* He became something of a punchline, but Manny is one of the greatest right-handed batters of his generation.
* Along with Gary Sheffield, A-Rod, Carlos Delgado, and Marco Scutaro
After three games in Oakland, the Angels head up to Safeco Field for their first matchup against division rival Seattle. Surprising exactly nobody, the Mariners are struggling to score runs. The vaunted young offensive duo of Dustin Ackley (.308 wOBA) and Jesus Montero (.309 wOBA and my rookie of the year pick. Fail.) hasn’t lived up to expectations, but they’re both young, talented, and just experiencing the growing pains of being an everyday player in the big leagues.
If I’m a Mariners fan, the guy I’m really concerned with is first baseman Justin Smoak. Smoak was a once top prospect in the Rangers’ organization and was the key piece in the Cliff Lee trade back in 2010. When Seattle dealt Lee, they thought they were getting their power hitting first basemen of the future to pair with Ackley and ace pitcher Felix Hernandez (who’s having a very Felix-like year: 2.74 FIP). After having a subpar 2011 (.316 wOBA), Smoak is even worse this season. His slash line is .218/.258/.333. He doesn’t walk (5.2% walk rate). He strikes out a ton (25.2% K rate). Certainly when you trade Cliff Lee, you expect to get an elite player back. That hasn’t happened for Smoak and the Mariners, and it’s starting to look like it may never happen. Smoak could still turn out to be a productive everyday player, as he’s only 25 years old. But as each day passes, dreams of a dominant Mariners middle-of-the-order core of Ackley-Montero-Smoak starts to look less likely.
Seven games this week for the Angels against two teams many people picked to lose 100 games. My goal is 1-6.
Probable Pitchers, according to ESPN
A’s
Monday: Jerome Williams (3.86 ERA) vs Tommy Milone (4.09)
Tuesday: CJ Wilson (3.35) vs Graham Godfrey (5.06)
Wednesday: Jered Weaver (2.80) vs Jarrod Parker (3.90)
Mariners
Thursday: Dan Haren (4.37) vs Jason Vargas (3.34)
Friday: Ervin Santana (4.22) vs Blake Beavan (4.46)
Saturday: Williams vs Felix Hernandez (3.02)
Sunday: Wilson vs Hector Noesi (5.61)
2 Bold Predictions for the week, because 3 is bad luck
1) Chone Figgins hits a home run…and let’s go ahead and say it’s a game winner. Because that would happen.
2) I get started early constructing Valentines for Mike Trout. I hope he likes Ninja Turtles.
Follow Andrew on Twitter @andrewkarcher.
“I picked them to win the World Series not because I’m a homer….”
I didn’t get any further into the article than right here….started laughing uncontrollably and just couldn’t regain focus.
Bummer
+1
A team loses its division by 10 games last year, somehow believes they are “a player away” and decides to continue to ignore any form of rational planning for the future, forfeits significant pieces in the 2012 draft by signing free agents du jour, and ignores the most pressing club option – bullpen. The only unbelievable part of this story is how many people shared your vision of the Halos in the world series. Laughable….
This scenario is even more bizarre when you consider the Pujols contract has 1,578 games remaining on it….
Meanwhile, it’s not surprising to see TX and STL doing well – they see the big picture and plan for the future accordingly….they are able to say “Adios, good luck” to guys like Cliff Lee, CJ Wilson and Pujols because their replacements are already prepared to step in at the MLB level. I have no doubt LA will be in the mix when Josh Hamilton becomes a free agent.
Angels fans love to talk about the potential of Mike Trout……uh, TX has about 5-6 players of that caliber moving through their system right now…..check out a player named Jurickson Profar, or Leonys Martin or Tanner Scheppers, or Martin Perez, or Mike Olt…..
Or, for STL check out Shelby Miller or Carlos Martinez….
All of those guys are probably ranked in the top 50 prospects overall in MLB….LA has no one considered that highly regarded…..sobering
Profar is the only Texas prospect you mentioned that could be on Trout’s level. Those guys could all be really good, but you’re undervaluing Trout for the sake of your argument. He has four plus or plus-plus tools. None of those guys have that, and Profar’s tools are all hovering around average to slightly above. Playing shortstop gives him tremendous value, but he’s probably going to end up just being really, really good, whereas Trout, along with Bryce Harper, is one of the best prospects ever.
It actually wasn’t very unreasonable to assume Pujols, Wilson, and Iannetta could make up for those 10 games that cost them the year before. Nobody expected Pujols to be this bad so far, or Iannetta to get hurt. Wilson is actually doing well, so I don’t see a reason to fault that signing.
Prospect wise, I completely agree with Hudson. Texas has a deep system with a lot of upside, but nobody, other than Harper, can match what Trout could potentially be. A true 5 tool talent is very rare, and like Hudson said, Trout has 4 plus to plus-plus tools. The lone exception is his arm strength, which still grades out as a 55, or slightly above average, on the 20-80 scale. Profar very easily could be a perennial all star shortstop, but that still doesn’t match Trout’s upside of a potential superstar.
Also, the Angels system isn’t as bad as you think. Jean Segura and Garrett Richards could each receive arguments to be top 50 prospects, and there are multiple other prospects that project to be at least average at the big league level.
Arguing over Trout versus Profar is just semantics. It was merely an example. The Angels farm system is weak by any definition. Trout is an anomaly. There is clearly a very strong correlation between teams that have the top farm systems and success in the playoffs within the next few years of having a strong farm system.
The process is as important as the end result. Some organizations value building a contender. Their actions speak loudly. The actions of the Angels organization do not show that the farm system is important. I don’t know any other way to put it. Pujols may be a superior player to Vernon Wells, but the thought process of acquiring both players is the same.
I’m not arguing the talent of Profar, merely the fact that the Rangers have the luxury of grooming an All-Star shortstop for tomorrow, while they already have an all-star short stop today……that’s planning.
Agreed, the Rangers are probably one of the best run franchises in sports. I also wouldn’t group the Pujols signing and Wells trade. First off, each took place under different regimes. Also, the Wells trade is a disaster, and that was known from the moment the deal took place. It is way too premature to evaluate the Pujols signing. There is little doubt they overpaid, but it was a significant addition for a fan base looking to get back to the playoffs.
The Angels system isn’t great right now, especially compared to the Rangers, but it is more middle of the pack than among the worst in baseball. The Angels actually do have a nice history of player development. A large amount of the roster is home grown, and the system has been a top 10 system as recently as entering the 2011 season. Many graduations, and loss of picks due to free agent signings has thinned out the system though.
It may be early, but certainly the Pujols signing was an unmitigated disaster. Remember, the Rangers have just as much money to spend, so it’s not like there aren’t consequences. There is an opportunity cost to signing Pujols that means there are other options LA did not get to explore. What if LA signed CJ Wilson, and Yu Darvish, and Papelbon? All for less than what they signed CJ/Pujols for…….hmmmm
And the worst part of all was no one was even in the ballpark for what we were offering Albert. we were negotiating against ourselves….crazy.
On the bright side, at least won’t ever have to pay out the 500k bonus for Albert being league MVP….