The answer to The Who's eternal question.
So here’s the skinny, folks. The Angels have nine games remaining and trail the A’s by 2.5 games for the final wild card slot. 2.5 games is a lot to make up in just nine games when you’re chasing a team like Oakland. With Oakland’s pitching, it’s difficult for them to fall into sustained ruts, especially since their final six games come at their pitcher-friendly home ballpark.
If the Angels have an advantage, it is their schedule is slightly easier. The Angels have six with Seattle (lined up to face Felix Hernandez twice) and three with Texas, while the A’s have seven with Texas and three with Seattle (they miss Felix). Texas leads the A’s by only four games, so they will want to give max effort to clinch the division as soon as possible, too; at least for this week, Texas won’t be taking a victory lap and trotting out their “B” team to face Oakland.*
* It can’t be understated how important this is for the Angels. Texas is clearly the better team, but they’ve also developed a bit of a rivalry with the Angels the past three years and you have to figure they would love to see the Angels miss the postseason, especially given the pissing contest the two teams had this offseason (Pujols/CJ to LAA, Darvish to Texas and they courted Prince Fielder). And if I’m Texas, I would rather meet up with the A’s in the playoffs than the Angels. In the playoffs, Oakland’s depth in the starting rotation is mitigated, while the Angels can trot out Jered Weaver and Zack Greinke (not to mention a superior offense to Oakland’s) maybe three times in a 5-game series. Jarrod Parker’s been great, but would you rather face him of Weaver in a do-or-die game?
The Angels open the week with their final home series of the season, welcoming the Seattle Mariners for three games. For the Angels to have a chance, they likely need to win at least five of their six games against the M’s, although sweeping all six is obviously preferred. As I mentioned last week, the Angels are 8-5 against the Mariners this season but other than the first meeting between the two clubs in late May, they’ve struggled against a team they should be defeating easily. In May, the Angels swept four games in Safeco, but since are only 4-5 against the Mariners, including losing two series at Angel Stadium. Yes, the four early wins count, but losing home series to the Mariners is a big reason the Angels are in the mess they’re in.
The Angels close the week with three games in Arlington, a house of horrors for them this season. You may remember the previous trip to Texas, which came right at the trade deadline. The Angels were feeling good, having just acquired Zack Greinke and winning the first two games of a crucial four-game set (this was back when the Angels still were in the division race). Then, the now infamous 8/1/2012 game, when the Angels led 7-1, blew the lead, but then took a 10-7 in the 10th inning. Atrocious starting pitching, questionable Scioscia decision making, and the blowpen all made in appearance to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. A win would have put the Angels only two back. The loss made them four back and for all intents and purposes ended their pursuit of the division race. It was a crushing loss at the time and one of those games Angels fans will look back on if they miss the miss the playoffs by one game.
The starting pitcher for the Rangers in that game was Yu Darvish, the Japanese import that all season has flashed great stuff but has struggled with command (4.29 BB/9 on the season, third worst of all qualified AL starters, ahead of only Ubaldo Jimenez and Ricky Romero). In that game, Darvish allowed six walks and seven runs in five innings of work. Watching the game, it was obvious he was laboring in the Texas heat (if memory serves, it was well over 100 degrees for much of that series). After that game, his ERA ballooned to 4.38, then rose to 4.57 after his next start, the highest it had been all season since his third career MLB start. The narratives that soon followed were obvious. Yu can’t handle major league hitters. Yu is wearing down like ALL Texas pitchers do in the dog days of August. The Rangers paid way too much for the next Daisuke.
Nope. In Darvish’s last six starts, he hasn’t walked more than two batters and has struck out at least eight batters in five of those starts. His ERA now sits at a very respectable 3.90, while his FIP is 3.30 (6th best in the AL), mostly due to his elite 10.43 K/9 (2nd in AL). Darvish’s stuff has never been lacking. We’ve all heard about his diverse arsenal and the “mystery” pitches that he threw in Japan. For Darvish, it was just a matter of focus and working on his command. If he works in the strike zone, the stuff will do the rest. The Rangers have been rewarded for their investment in Darvish**, who has a 4.8 fWAR and has developed into a legitimate ace that will obliterate the AL West for years to come and compete for Cy Young awards.
** Darvish’s deal with Texas pays him $56M through 2017, a bargain for a pitcher that looks like he’s routinely going to put up 5-win seasons. Even if you factor in the approximately $51M winning bid that allowed the Rangers to negotiate directly with Darvish, that’s still only about $107M for a 26-year old pitcher entering his prime who might already be one of the AL’s 10 best pitchers.
It’s safe to say the Rangers were correct in signing Darvish and letting CJ Wilson walk. Wilson has had a good year (I guess), but hardly what the Angels were anticipating when they signed him for $77.5M in December. His numbers are down across the board, and maybe there should have been some red flags given that the Rangers were all too willing to let Wilson walk after his stellar 2010-2011 seasons in which he combined for 10.7 fWAR. Credit to the Rangers, who rolled the dice on Darvish and were handsomely rewarded. Not only did they acquire a stud pitcher, but they also let their rivals sign Wilson to a deal which he almost certainly won’t earn. Best case scenario for Wilson is he regains his Texas form and becomes a 5-win pitcher again. Worst case? He’s Barry Zito 2.0.
Probable Pitchers, according to ESPN
Mariners
Tuesday: Zack Greinke (3.47 ERA) vs Erasmo Ramirez (3.28). Glad Mike Scioscia moved Greinke up a day.
Wednesday: Ervin Santana (4.93) vs Felix Hernandez ( 2.85)
Thursday: Dan Haren (4.35) vs Hisashi Iwakuma (3.41)
Rangers
All the Angels starters are TBA for the Texas series. Bet on Weaver starting the series opener, with Wilson throwing Saturday and Greinke throwing Sunday. That would set up Weaver throwing next Tuesday on three days rest, if need be, or starting the regular season finale on regular rest, with Greinke starting a tiebreaker on Thursday on three days rest (might only have him for 9 more days, may as well use him). The Texas pitchers the Angels will face are same as last week: Ryan Dempster, Derek Holland, and Darvish.
3 Bold Predictions
1) The Angels head to Texas trailing the A’s by 1 game.
2) The Angels leave Texas trailing the A’s by 2 games.
3) The blowpen has one more game they would like to blow on a scale of epic proportions.
“Mike Trout For MVP” Sewing Circle
Tough week for the Sewing Circle. Trout continues to struggle in September (by his standards), with only a .780 OPS. He looks gassed and you have to wonder if the Angels even make the playoffs if he’ll have anything left in the tank. Might sound like I’m making excuses, but he’s only 21 and this is the first time he’s played baseball this deep into a season on an everyday basis. It was unreasonable to expect him to not hit a rookie wall.
Meanwhile, in Detroit, Miguel Cabrera continues to rake and looks like he’s going to win the first Triple Crown since Yaz in 1967. The Trout vs Cabrera debate is really interesting in that it looks like it’s boiling down to New School vs Old School. On the one hand, you have Trout, who doesn’t have the power numbers and counting stats Cabrera does but compares favorably on offense when you use tools like wOBA and wRC+ and obliterates Cabrera in WAR and looking at the overall value he brings on defense and the basepaths. On the other hand you have Cabrera, who is ZOMG RBI!
All the narrative advantages Trout seemed to possess (Possibly the best rookie season of all time; age-20 season and the Angels started playing better immediately after he arrived; etc) have also shifted to Cabrera. Cabrera has the Triple Crown angle, he’s closer to making the playoffs,*** he showed “leadership” moving to third base upon Fielder’s arrival (even if he’s one of the worst rated defensive third basemen using DRS and UZR and even if the team would have been better off had he played DH), he’s “carrying” his team in September, because the games in September count more than the ones in July, you guys.
*** Even if the Angels have a better record while also playing in a tougher division. But still, voters mustn’t be disturbed with such trivialities.
If Cabrera wins the Triple Crown, he’s a shoo-in to win MVP. Look, Cabrera is a phenomenal player and I think he’s the best hitter in the game. Right now, he’s my #2 MVP choice. But him having one more home run than Josh Hamilton should have no bearing on how someone votes and it’s unfortunate that voters are going to get snookered into voting for Cabrera just because he’s accomplishing something that is, while impressive, a poor evaluator of overall value one brings to a team.
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Nobody outside of SoCal will shed a tear if the Angels miss the playoffs this year. When a team has a “big splash” offseason like the Angels did this past year and vaults itself into the top handful of teams for payroll, there’s a bit of schadenfreude at play when said team wins 87-89 games and misses the postseason entirely….especially when two of the teams edging out the Angels are the Orioles and A’s…both doing it with what seems like little more than guts and pixie dust….or paper clips and q-tips for any MacGyver fans in the crowd…and one with a vastly inferior payroll. Good news is this teal will finish with a semi-respectable W-L record that would make them a playoff team in the NL and allows for some hope that 2013 can be better. Based on where this team stood on April 27th and again on August 19th, finishing at or below .500 seemed like a real possibility.
Totally agree on Trout. I do think it’ll be neat to have something happen that hasn’t happened since 1967, but that feat doesn’t make Cabrera the most valueable player in the AL this year. People are funny about the Triple Crown, though. Even though Pujols never did it in a given year, I don’t think the fact he lead MLB in average, HR, and RBI during the entire 2001-10 decade gets enough attention and respect. THAT, to me, is far more impressive than doing it in one season.
Nice to agree with Dubya for a change, both in terms of the Angels having every opportunity to dominate this year and sustained greatness mattering more than 1 season of bold numbers. I’m shocked that the Angels have performed so…serviceably without any major injuries. Couple missed starts from Weaver, couple weeks down for Torii and Aybar…Trout missed the 1st month. Miniscule stuff. They should have 90 wins by now.
If the Angels blow this season they have nothing to blame but their poor start in April. And I have no problem with Miggy Cabrera winning the MVP if he holds on and takes the hitting Triple Crown. Come On it has been done in 45 years since I was 7 years old. Miggy will have earned it, but there are still 9 games to play, maybe Troutie will do some thing even more stupendous, like make another awesome catch or steal home or hit a Grand Slam to clinch a play off berth. That’s why they play the games!!
I find it a bit ironic that this whole Trout v. Cabrera for AL MVP thing has been dubbed “old school” versus “new school” way of thinking. I know those terms are meant to highlight how the game looks at stats in evaluating players, with the advanced sabermetrics favoring Trout over the “traditional” AVG/HR/RBY stats favoring Cabrera. But let’s take a step back and look at the big picture. Trout, to me, personifies the kind of standout all-around player that typified the 1920s through the 1960s. I see him as a throwback that compares favorably to guys like Hornsby and Cobb, as well as Mays and Mantle. To me, Cabrera is much more a product of the DH/PED era from the early 1970s forward, which elevates what a player does with his bat more than anything else. So if we want to talk about who is “old school” and who is “new school,” maybe we need to take a second look at just what those terms actually mean and how they apply in this instance.
Further irony is that Josh Hamilton, presumptive AL MVP until late May/early June, may hold the keys to both the AL MVP race between Trout and Cabrera and the Angels postseason chances. If he outduels Cabrera for the HR title and prevents the Triple Crown from happening, that would likely seal the MVP for Trout. Also, Texas’ final 9 games are against the Angels and A’s, and what Hamilton does in this stretch will be crucial to which of thsoe teams is sitting in that 2nd wild card when the dust settles after 162 games.
I think that the rangers are most likely losing their games against the A’s on purpose to try and ruin the Angel’s chances of making the playoffs. Does anyone else agree with me?
It’s unlikely. Texas is probably worried about clinching the division and resting a few players for the postseason.
I don’t really buy it, at least not yet. While I am of the mind that the Rangers would rather play the A’s than the Angels in the postseason, I think this series with Oakland they are legitimately trying to win the games. They’re still using all their regulars and using their best bullpen pitchers in high leverage situations. And, Texas doesn’t want to risk losing the AL West to Oakland or possibly the #1 seed to NYY; if they get the #1 seed, they get to take on the wild card team that may have exhausted their rotation/bullpen just to advance to the ALDS. Also, with the top seed, Texas gets home field advantage until the WS. We all know how much Texas likes to hit in Arlington.