Evan Longoria is back to help lead the Rays to October for the fourth time in five years.
The Angels start Week 20 in fifth place in the wild card standings, two games behind Baltimore for the second spot. In case you were wondering, they currently sit eight games behind Texas for the AL West lead, so if it wasn’t apparent a week ago that the Angels aren’t winning the division, then now it should be. I chuckle now when the Angels broadcasters say things like “welp Texas lost so the Angels could gain some ground tonight,” which is technically true but also misguided. Tampa Bay’s and St. Louis’ miracle runs last year are the exception, and while an Angels comeback wouldn’t be as dramatic, they would still enter territory few teams in the game’s history have ever approached. In conclusion: the Angels aren’t winning the division, no reason to pretend.
That doesn’t mean the Angels are bad or doomed for next year. It simply means Texas is better and the Angels’ perceived strength, starting pitching, has inexplicably turned into a mediocre mess. Say what you will about Albert Pujols and his elephantine contract but when simply looking at 2012, Pujols is an upgrade at first base over 2011 options. Pujols’ arrival moved Trumbo to left field (upgrade over Vernon Wells), Kendrys Morales hasn’t been in 2009 form but he’s still a DH upgrade over Bobby Abreu, Mike Trout > Peter Bourjos, Chris Iannetta when healthy puts Jeff Mathis to shame. That’s five lineup positions the Angels upgraded in one year and the efforts have been fruitful: in 2011 the Angels’ .314 wOBA ranked 9th in the AL, this year’s group has posted a .331 wOBA, third best in the AL.
The starting pitching — the one aspect of the Angels everyone in the baseball universe agreed upon and salivated over in the preseason — is bringing the team down. Despite adding CJ Wilson to a staff that had the second best AL ERA in 2011, the Angel starters have fared significantly worse, allowing an extra half-run in 2012. Jered Weaver has been spectacular, but after him the rotation is hit or miss. Dan Haren’s ERA+ is 36 points off his career pace, Ervin Santana is 21 off his career norms (and nearly 50 off his very good 2011 campaign), and Wilson is 38 points lower than his 2011 season in Texas.
Again, the Angels’ were universally praised for building this rotation. Dave Cameron at Fangraphs even ranked the Angels starting staff the best in baseball back in March. So can we really blame Jerry Dipoto for the current pitching? We can blame the Angels for not having proper organizational depth in case of injury*, but the Angels starters have been relatively unscathed by the injury bug, with Weaver and Haren’s singular 15-day DL stint representing all the missed time for the rotation.
* Contrast them to the A’s, who have used 9 different starting pitchers (5 of them rookies!) and have the best pitching in the league.
On paper the 2012 Angels are a disaster, currently out of the playoffs and only five games over .500. The bullpen isn’t good, but it’s also not the historically bad iteration we’ve seen in April and now August, nor is it the the unit that posted a 2.34 ERA in June; the truth lies somewhere in the middle. The bullpen has lost games, but the starters haven’t put the bullpen in position to succeed either, consistently throwing short outings due to ineffectiveness or inefficiency**. The good news for the Angels is that the rotation talent is there. Weaver is a potential Cy Young winner, Haren has looked pretty good in three of his four post-DL starts, Wilson is due for some positive regression, Santana doesn’t look like a disaster anymore, and Zack Greinke is a significant upgrade over Jerome Williams and Garrett Richards.
** In 2011, Angels starters averaged 6.44 innings per start. In 2012, they’re averaging 6.12. That may not sound like a steep decline, but over 162 games that’s about 52 more innings you’re allotting to the bullpen. 52 more innings of Hisanori Takahashi and Jason Isringhausen will lead to more losses.
The season has been a disappointment and heads will roll if the Angels don’t make the playoffs, but if the pitching was preordained to underperform this much, then there’s really nothing that Dipoto and company could have done to improve the 2012 Angels.
As for this week, the Angels cap a 10-game homestand before hitting the road for a difficult trip. First up is the Cleveland Indians, a team that fancied itself a playoff contender a couple months ago but now has the third worst run differential in baseball, thanks in large part to a recent 11-game losing streak. This is the type of series a playoff contender wins and should regularly sweep, so the Angels really need this series before the schedule toughens up. The same could have been said for Seattle over the weekend so I’m not holding my breath, but still.
The Angels close the week with a 4-game series against the Rays. As I surmised a couple weeks ago when the Angels played the Rays, Tampa seemed like a good bet to go on a run because of their strong pitching, underachieving offense, and Evan Longoria’s return. The Rays then used that series victory over the Angels to propel them on an 11-2 run that took them to the wild card lead. The scary thing is that since his return, Longoria has struggled. In only 6 games, he has a .254 wOBA. He’s better than that, so when he starts hitting the Rays are dangerous. I’ve liked their team all year so I like their chances to grab one of those wild card spots. That leaves one spot open to the Angels, A’s, AL Central second place finisher, Baltimore, and maybe Boston if they can go on a run.
Five teams for one spot. The odds aren’t in the Angels’ favor, but if the starting pitching regains early-2012 or 2011 form, the Angels are a tough out every night. This week will say a lot about where the Angels stand in the playoff mix.
Probable Pitchers, according to ESPN
Indians
Monday: CJ Wilson (3.34 ERA) vs Justin Masterson (4.68)
Tuesday: Zack Greinke (3.74) vs Ubaldo Jimenez (5.25)
Wednesday: Ervin Santana (5.82) vs Roberto Hernandez, but you probably know him better as Fausto Carmona (season debut)
Rays
Thursday: Dan Haren (4.68) vs David Price, one of the top Cy Young contenders (2.50)
Friday: Jered Weaver (2.22) vs James Shields (4.02)
Saturday: Wilson vs Alex Cobb (4.32)
Sunday: Greinke vs Matt Moore (3.73)
3 Bold Predictions
1) Mark Trumbo finds his power stroke again, hits 3 home runs.
2) Lakers over Heat in 7 games next June.
3) The Expendables 3 needs Steven Seagal. That’s not a prediction so much as a demand.
Follow Andrew on Twitter @andrewkarcher for random nonsense and follow Halos Daily @HalosDaily for the latest Angels coverage.
It does get old hearing Angels broadcasters say that an upcoming series “is an opportunity to gain ground”. These statements are for losers and are not necessary if you have a playoff contending team. You are correct when stating the obvious, that the Angels will not win the Division. The Division was given away on AUGUST 1ST when SCIOSCIA failed to pinch run for Morales. Moreno/Dipoto time to send Scioscia to the front office. The Angels can not win with him in the dugout. Dont do what Scioscia has done and continue to expect different results. Scioscia had his Brandon Wood and Jeff Mathis loves and where did that get us. He traded off Napoli for the $25 million man. (Yes, he traded him because Napoli didnt bow down). Now, we have the Wells situation again. Seems like we were doing fine without Wells in the dugout. How many wins do we have with Wells in the lineup? Wells gets a couple hits and Scioscia will be juggling everything to fit him in. Lets see what happens when Trout sits for Wells. I expect the Angels to under perform as long as Scioscia is in charge. I will not allow myself to be disappointed.
This continued thread about Scioscia “giving away the season” by not pinch running for Morales back on 8/1 is getting a bit silly. Please. You could review many decisions in that game, and equally blame Washington for TX being down early in the game and not giving Yu Darvish an early hook. LAA finished 10 games behind TX last year. We’re now 8 games back this year. Seeing a pattern? We are not “1″ player away from being a contender.
The problems of this organization stem from a lack of any coherent plan to build a team and acquire and groom young talent (with the one exception of Trout). The manager is doing his best to keep a very mediocre team in the wildcard race. I’m not saying that the Angels don’t have a lot of individual talent on the roster – they most certainly do. However – this is not basketball. A few stars on a team, like LeBron and Dwayne Wade, can’t carry a baseball team.
It takes 25 players on a daily basis to make it through a MLB season. With injuries and other situations, you probably need another 5 players to come up and fill in spots throughout the season. It’s great that we have Trout, Trumbo and Weaver. But if anyone feels that LAA is one of the best MLB teams from man 1 to 25, you have to be kidding yourself.
Taking a look at what we have in the minors doesn’t make me feel any better, either. Enjoy Trout, because there isn’t anyone else in the organization that’s 25% as good as he is.
No, what gets old is Scioscia. The 8/1 day is just recent enough for folks to remember. I have heard Angel broadcasters indicate that the coach/manager doesnt hit or field the ball and they dont pitch. The defenders of Scioscia will say it is the “bullpen” or some other thing that is the reason for losing. At what point does a coach or manager take responsibility for wins/losses. Baseball is a business. In business when a talented group of employees are not producing you have to look at management. Lets see…the offense was not performing. Who is in charge? Mickey Hatcher is the coach so he gets fired (one year late but fired, good! Lets see…..the pitching is not performing. Who is in charge? Get it. I dont think Scioscia stopped managing on August 1, it goes back a couple years. August 1 is for folks that cant add 2 plus 2.
” At what point does a coach or manager take responsibility for wins/losses. Baseball is a business. In business when a talented group of employees….”
And at what point do Angels fans own up to the fact that the roster just isn’t as talented as it’s being portrayed?
We’ve heard all about the vaunted pitching staff and how it’s among the baseball with people overusing the terms “aces” and “co-aces” a bit. Well, Weaver’s done his part, no dbout about that, but what about the others? Did they really deserve the hype of being called an “ace,” or a solid #2 starter for that matter? C.J. Wilson was up-and-down for 5 years as a reliever, posted two solid seasons as a starter, but his peripherals suggested he was maybe getting a tad lucky, and he’s very likely just a #3 guy. Dan Haren and Zack Greinke have both been around for several years now and shown occasional flashes of greatness, but they’ve never had the year-in, year-out quality that you associate with acedom, a la Verlander, Weaver, or Hernandez. So, again, you’ve got a couple of #3 starters. Granted, most teams would love to have a certified ace and three #3s behind him, but the superlatives obviously outweighed the actual talent on this staff. And the bullpen? Well, the issues there have been covered ad nauseum.
Now let’s shift gears and look at the position players? Trout is a best, no question, and is possibly the best all-around player in baseball. Trumbo is a monster power guy but can go through stretches with a big hole in his swing and doesn’t offer much speed or defense. Pujols? Hah, again this has been covered ad nauseum. What did you really expect from a guy leaving his prime, no matter how good he was before? You’ll probably get 2-3 more years of him with a .270-.290 BA, a .330-.350 OBP, and a .500-.520 SLG, and then it’s going to get ugly just as the average annual salary spikes to around $30 million. Bourjos? Yet to prove he’s more than a 4th outfielder. Hunter? Has both some offensive/defenssive value left, but the clock is ticking fast. Wells? LOL. Aybar/Kendrick? Meh, good role players. You know what you’re getting here. Even at their absolute best, they’re not a big help to the team. Callaspo? Another meh. And we’ll see what the catching spot holds if you can ever get someone in there to play consistently.
Bottom line is you can go through the pitching staff and position players of at least 10 other teams and come away with a much greater impression than with the Angels. In other words, this isn’t just about an extremely talented (massively overpaid, maybe) Angels team under-achieving but is about a team that just wasn’t that talented to begin with.
I dont claim to be an expert as you seem to be but the so called experts had the Angels ranked 1 or 2 before the season started. The experts had the Angel starting pitching #1 before the season started. It is easy for you to criticize player performance at this point in the season. Where were you April 4? I bet you were one of those so called experts claiming a #1 or 2 team. When evaluating a team you must include the coaching staff. If not, why have them. It is clear as day the Angels need a new pitching coach and manager in order to get this “extremely talented” team to the next level.