Robinson Cano could stand in Mike Trout's way during awards voting season
Doesn’t the 6-14 start feel like a really long time ago? On April 28, the Angels were 8 games under .500, trailed the first place Texas Rangers by 9 games, and were 5.5 games out of a wild card spot. Today, the Angels sit 4 games behind the Rangers (still tough, not impossible) and have a 2.5 game lead over Baltimore for the top wild card spot. They also have the fifth best record in baseball and sixth best run differential.
Many have hypothesized the reasons for the resurgence: Jerry Dipoto recalled Mike Trout*, Vernon Wells got hurt, Albert Pujols started hitting, Mickey Hatcher got fired, Mark Trumbo developed a more patient approach, Ernesto Frieri’s arrival saved the bullpen, Vernon Wells got hurt, Jered Weaver/CJ Wilson are having great years, Vernon Wells got hurt. Me? I’ll take a big helping of Mike Trout and mix it with most guys just returning to career norms. This team has always been too talented to finish under .500; some positive regression was expected.
* Trout is my midseason MVP pick, just edging out Josh Hamilton and Robinson Cano. My other picks: AL Cy Young: Verlander, NL MVP: McCutchen, NL Cy Young: Dickey. Pretty chalk, I know.
If the Angels want to catch the Rangers though, they’re going to need a lot of things to fall their way. They either need to make a deadline acquisition for pitching or need the Dan Haren/Ervin Santana derp-duo to, you know, not give up 5 runs in 3 2/3 every outing. They need Pujols to stay on a positive, June-like trajectory, when he hit .326/.409/.568 for the month. More of that, please. They need Chris Iannetta to come back and give them SOMETHING, ANYTHING from the catcher position. Scioscia needs to not play Wells more than once a week when he’s healthy. They need Trumbo to change nothing. And when Trout eventually regresses, they need him to crash not too hard. Assuming he regresses. He has to, right? Even just a little? He can’t be this good already, can he?
And there’s also the schedule. The post All Star break schedule has been foreshadowed on this site before, and it’s finally here. Over the next 23 games, spanning until August 5, 20 of the Angels’ games come against the Yankees, Rangers, Tigers, White Sox, and Rays. Those are arguably the best 5 teams in the AL, excluding the Angels. This also does not include 6 late-August games against the Red Sox, who could have Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Dustin Pedroia all back by then. Also throw in some more September games against the Rangers and White Sox, and the second half schedule is a beast. No more feasting on the Twins, Orioles (I’m still not a believer), and Rockies. If the Angels want to make the postseason, let alone catch Texas, they have to bring it, starting Friday.
With the break, the Angels only have a series against the Yankees this week. Since Trout was recalled, the Yankees may be the only AL team that can claim they’ve been hotter than the Angels. New York, owner of baseball’s best record (52-33), has opened up a 7 game division lead over the Orioles and 9.5 game lead over their rivals, the last place Red Sox. Significant injuries to Mariano Rivera, Michael Pineda, Brett Gardner, and Andy Pettitte haven’t really phased them. Their best pitcher, CC Sabathia, also spent time on the DL. Despite all those pitching injuries, the Yankees still rank third in the AL in ERA, third in FIP, and first in xFIP — their high home run rate (12.1%) is possibly due to the short porch in right field. The Hiroki Kuroda-Ivan Nova tandem has been a godsend for the Yanks, combining for 3.1 fWAR in 218.1 innings, mixing above average groundball rates with solid K/BB rates. With the Yankees offense (lead the AL in wOBA), you don’t need to be elite, just efficient.
The Angels stretch of good luck with avoiding pitchers continues, as they get to miss Sabathia, who will make his first start since June 24 on Tuesday, well after the Angels have gotten out of Dodge.
Probable Pitchers, according to ESPN
Friday: Wilson (2.43ERA) vs Kuroda (3.50)
Saturday: Jerome Williams, in his first start off the DL (4.46) vs Freddy Garcia (5.23)
Sunday: Weaver (1.96, best in MLB) vs Nova (3.92)
3 Bold Predictions for the second half
1) Mike Trout’s doesn’t win the batting title, but does win MVP. If the Angels happen to win the AL West, it’s all but guaranteed. The voters wouldn’t be able to resist the narrative.
2) The Angels acquire Ryan Dempster. He’s not as sexy as Zack Greinke or Cole Hamels, but he’s a damn good third or fourth starter and would be a significantly cheaper rental than the other two guys.
3) Texas wins the West (sad face), but the Angels host the wild card against the Red Sox and win, setting up a first round showdown with the Rangers.
Follow Andrew on Twitter @andrewkarcher
Not only do you have 20 of your first 23 against those five teams, 39 of your final 76 are against them. So if the Angels make the playoffs, they will have earned it.
I agree wtih your Trout-for-MVP selection and will do you one better and say Weaver should earn the Cy Young in the AL. No quibbles with your NL picks.
Also agree that the Angels aren’t getting Hamels or Greinke. It’ll be either Garza or Dempster, which’ll help, if only a little.
My bold prediction is the Angels finish 84-78 and snag the 2nd wild card spot where they go to Detroit and get carpet-bombed.
Being a top 3 AL team, I like their chances to get through their schedule just fine. I’m sure those teams are thinking “oh no, we have to face a tough team and go against Weaver/Wilson/Haren/Trout/Trumbo/Pujols etc.”
Not so bold prediction is they finish more like 92-70
Although, lately, teams are probably cheering when they get to face Haren. He’s a huge key to their fortunes in the second half.
“Being a top 3 AL team, I like their chances to get through their schedule just fine.”
You, like most homers, would. But here in Realityville, it’s not that simple. The schedule is a big problem, especially with so many question marks in the back 3/5ths of the roation. That will leave Weaver and Wilson with virtually zero error. The Angels will HAVE to win 90% of their starts for them to have a chance because those big bopper teams will punish your back-end starters.
I love a scheduling quirk that works agains the Angels, that being that they have to travel to Detroit 7 times. I saw some Orioles fans bemoaning the fact they had to play LAA on the road 7 times versus only 2 at home, but the situation with Detroit works just the opposite. And that’s a team that underachieved in the first half and will be highly motivated to finish strong.
Nobody will be complaining about playing Detroit 7 times. Last season they were a .500 team against the AL and got all their cushion against the Twins, Royals, Indians. They’re not really underachieving, they are what they are. One dominant starter, mediocre 4/5 rotation, porous laughable defense/range, and a one dimensional offense.
I’ve never been high on Detroit either, for all the reasons you said. Plus, Valverde had to regress from his flukey no blown save 2011. He’s fine he’s just not THAT good. I still thought they would win the division and I do think their offense is under performing a bit, but still.
“Although, lately, teams are probably cheering when they get to face Haren. He’s a huge key to their fortunes in the second half.”
Exactly. While the offense looks much better (especially with Trout as a centerpiece) and the bullpen is no longer a headache, this is a team built to succeed on its starting pitching. Lacking viable 3/4 options in the starting rotation and resigning yourself to one of the WC spots, it’s practically a given you’ll need to burn either Weaver or Wilson in the one-and-done wild card game just to have a chance.
This team has major holes. That’s all there is to it. Deny it all you want, but the Angels will be lucky to make the playoffs this year.
Yes, we heard you the other hundred times. Big holes, sink is shipping, in the gutter, carpet bombed…OK we get it. If the Angels are such a mess with weaknesses here and there, I would love to hear your assessment of the other teams, LOL.
I bet you like to point out every time Trout strikes out, or how Weaver doesn’t have command of his slider. Yawn.
I basically had the Angels as a 93 win team, and since the early Pujols slump was made up for by the Trout surge, they’ll probably get there again. You’re right about the improvement-to-the-mean deal with guys like Aybar and Kendrick…
As for Trout’s regression, I was nervous about his .400-ish Babip, but then I saw that his minor league numbers were the same. Ichiro was someone who’s Babip approached .400 in his better seasons, and Trout’s got more raw power. I still think we’re looking at a .325/.380/.530 season from Trout rather than a .340/.400/.550 he’s been at lately, but the regression shouldn’t be too steep.
93 is optimistic in my irrelevant opinion, but if Santana/Haren can muster some 2011 magic, then it wouldn’t surprise me at all. I’m projecting 88 wins, splitting the difference between the other folks in the comments.
“Nobody will be complaining about playing Detroit 7 times. Last season they were a .500 team against the AL and got all their cushion against the Twins, Royals, Indians. They’re not really underachieving, they are what they are. One dominant starter, mediocre 4/5 rotation, porous laughable defense/range, and a one dimensional offense.”
See, this is what makes your credibility suspect. You have no trouble blowing sunshine on the Angels’ behalf but have no trouble poo-pooing a team like Detroit that has obvious upside. Say what you will about last season (and them beating up on soft teams), but they DID win 95 games. The Angels fared 9 worse and had their own anti-juggernauts in Oakland and Seattle to supposedly pad their win total with. I don’t care what team it is or what year, if you’ve won 95 games against MLB competition, you’ve deserved the honor of being considered a good team.
Yes, some of the pundits who got overly bullish on them this year with the Fielder acquisition may have shot their wad a litlte early, but this isn’t a bad team. They finished the first half very strong, and you’re a fool to blithely dismiss the fact you have to go to their home turf 7 gimes in the 2nd half.
Can’t wait to see the Angels’ record against Detroit in the second half. I bet they do no better than 4-5, and that’s even knowing they miss Verlander in the first 4-game set.
Two other teams that account for a crapload of games on the Angels schedule that could give them fits: Boston and Oakland.
Boston has underachieved – some of that because of injury – but arguably has the talent to compete with the best. They should be more healthy in the 2nd half, and I wouldn’t exactly like seeing them on the schedule. And Oakland is hanging in there near .500….not exactly a powerhouse but a tough divisional foe that can give you fits if you’re not careful. They did sweep a series in Anaheim earlier this year. Just sayin’.
Sorry, Oakland took 3 of 4 in that series. Either way, the Angels only went 4-5 against the A’s in the first half. You’ve got 9 games left with them in the 2nd half, 6 on the road.
LOL
“LOL”
I don’t know what you’re LOLing. You think you can just declare the Angels an elite team by fiat and make it so, and that’s just not the case. It’s very early in the 2nd half but their difficult schedule has already proven a headache. You dropped 2 of 3 to NYY, even with Wilson/Weaver on the mound for two games and avoiding Sabathia. I know, in you mind, the Angels are a lock to win the West and surpass the Rangers by 7-8 games; I just don’t want you to be disappointed if they’re scraping to make the 2nd wild card spot or miss the postseason altogether.
LOL, you spend way too much time on Halos Daily. You’ve already made your point. We get it. Angels are flawed left and right, full of holes, and will scrape by, lucky to avoid this and that. Go Tigers, go whatever team you want to commemorate. Nobody cares about your trolling, man. I’ll continue enjoying the games and watch them light up those halos. I won’t be addressing you anymore unless it’s a LOL, because quite frankly I can finally use it on the internet in the literal sense.
I would gladly talk baseball with any other fan on this site, but clearly you have shown your knowledge in the game is slightly lacking.
Go Tigers….I’m predicting 2-7 against Det, LOL.
“but clearly you have shown your knowledge in the game is slightly lacking.”
Another clear sign you’ve lost the argument. You resort to the old, childish stand-by, “Yeah, well it’s obvious you don’t know nuffin’!!!”
Really??? “Slightly lacking”?? Everything I’ve posted on this site is either A) indisputable fact (ex. so-and-so’s OPS was .917 in May) or B) informed opinions based on facts/logic (ex. it will be tough for such-and-such team to post a winning record in August when 90% of their games area against teams with .550+ records).
No, we’ve gotten to the heart of what makes me a “troll.” It’s not that I spew loose opinions and erroneous facts trying to get a rise out of people here; it’s that I report inconventient truths – that you don’t like – that explain why the Anaheim Angels aren’t nearly as good a team as most people were thinking they would be coming into this season.
I know it’s disappointing to fall short of expectations. But how ’bout you learn to deal with it like a grown-up rather than lash out at the messenger.
I love seeing someone anonymously proclaim that they are done anonymously communicating with you…..funny stuff.
Nice points dubya……don’t get why Halo fans can’t vent about how this team has been run.
I’m rooting for the Halos but certainly have my doubts that they can catch TX. LAA was awful to start the season, then had a great run. Fans don’t seem to realize that while the terrible start to the season wasn’t a fair gauge of this team, the hot May/June isn’t necessarily accurate either.
I think it’s important to note that at no point this year has TX played under .500 for any significant stretch. TX has had two great stretches where they played about 10 games over .500. The rest of the year, they’ve been about .500. It would be naive to think TX would have a losing record for the balance of the season. Even if TX does finish with a losing record (say 36-37), they’ll still put up 90+ wins…..ouch.
The schedule is particularly nasty this week. It’s not just the teams (LAA plays at NYY and at DET, while TX gets at SEA/OAK). It’s also the rest. Out of the break, LAA plays 10 straight days. While LAA plays 4 at DET this week, TX has off day, at OAK, at OAK, off day…..