- ZiPS projects Mike Trout to post an 8 WAR season, including a .282/.361/.507 slash line with 29 home runs and 47 stolen bases. Here is what Szymborski had to say about Trout’s projection:
It’s impossible to ignore the very optimistic projection for 2012′s Champion of WAR, Mike Trout — so, let’s not. While an eight-win season is certainly aggressive so far as a forecast is concerned — if for no other reason than only two or three players surpass the eight-win threshold per year — it’s also the case that ZiPS is being at least somewhat conservative with regard to Trout, forecasting him to hit fewer home runs, steal fewer bases, post a considerably lower BABIP, and save fewer runs afield in 2013 than in 2012.
- ZiPS thinks Pujols will rebound slightly in 2013 to post a 5.3 win season with 31 home runs and 94 RBIs. I personally think those numbers seem a little low, but that may just be wishful thinking.
- Mark Trumbo is projected as a 2+ win player with 34 home runs and 94 RBI’s (same as Pujols), albeit with a .309 OBP.
- ZiPS is quite down on Josh Hamilton as he enters his first year as an Angel, projecting him to hit just 26 home runs with a .267/.329/.481 line, and 3.8 WAR.
- ZiPS thinks Vernon Wells will post a positive(!) wins above replacement total.
- Of the five projected starters, just one (Jered Weaver at 203) is projected to pitch 200+ innings. Weaver is projected at a very respectable ERA- of 77 and a 4.9 WAR. Jason Vargas and Joe Blanton are (not surprisingly) projected to posts ERA’s of 4.35 and 4.49 respectively. ZiPS likes Tommy Hanson, putting him at a 2.2 WAR with a 3.93 ERA and nearly 170 innings pitched.
- Although he is likely to spend most of 2013 in the minors, Nick Maronde projects to be the 2nd best relief pitcher on the team (behind Ernesto Frieri) over a full season. Meanwhile, ZiPS is quite fond of Ryan Madson, projecting him at a 70 FIP-.
- ZiPS projects the Angels starting lineup, rotation and bullpen to combine to be worth 51 WAR. Using the traditional estimate that a team filled with replacement level players would win roughly 45 games, ZiPS is essentially projecting the Angels to win ~96 games. That’s probably somewhat high, but it’s an impressive number for the generally conservative projection system.
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