
Expect to see this face a lot on Monday
The Angels embark on a ridiculous 10-game road trip, with all 10 games against current playoff teams. As of right now, the Angels are a third place team; this isn’t their fault, per se, as they haven’t been playing poorly* but have seen the A’s play ridiculous, Moneyball-era 18-4 baseball in July. With 60 games left, the Angels are 5 games behind the first place Rangers, ½ game behind Oakland for the wild card lead, and 1 game ahead of Detroit for the second wild card. Yeah, it’s going to be an interesting 2 months. After this week, they should know if they are legitimate AL West contenders or resigned to the randomness of the wild card.
*They haven’t been great either: 5-4 on their home stand and, going back further, 7-9 in their tough post-All Star stretch.
For the Angels to make a serious run at Texas, they really need to win this upcoming 4-game set at Texas – ideally they sweep, but that’s not happening. The Angels only play Texas 10 more times, so maximizing on these matchups is the best and quickest way to gain ground. A series victory in Arlington would mean the Angels trail the Rangers by 3 games with 56 games left; with Zack Greinke and a possibly revitalized Dan Haren now in tow, that sounds pretty manageable. A series split wouldn’t eliminate them from the division, but gaining 5 games on a superior team with only 56 games left sounds like a tall order. A series loss means the Angels division death knell, and a series sweep could seriously jeopardize their wild card hopes.
But apparently Mike Scioscia and Angels management seem content to fall into a 0-1 series hole right off the bat, as Ervin Santana will take the mound in Monday’s series opener. When the Angels acquired Greinke, I think most assumed Santana would be banished to the bullpen, where he can perfect his sunflower spitting technique while pitching a low leverage situation every now and then.
Nope. Instead, Garrett Richards was optioned to Salt Lake and Ervin Santana will pitch 15 outs maximum,** because the Angels have this misguided notion that Santana will pitch better when he can be more aggressive and not worry about pitch counts. Uh, yeah, that’s not going to work. Santana’s 2012 problems are pretty simple: he only has 2 pitches he’s comfortable throwing, and he can’t locate either. The walks and meatballs aren’t going to magically disappear now that he only has to get 15 outs. Frankly, he hasn’t been able to get 15 outs very often of late, lasting less than 2 innings in 2 out of his last 3 starts, one of which was against Texas. And that was in the comfy confines of Anaheim. Texas is a far superior offense at home (.350 wOBA) than on the road (.325).
** He was slated to do this last Friday, but instead was bumped back while Haren and CJ Wilson were moved up in the rotation, leaving Sunday’s rotation spot vacated. Of course, that was Greinke’s scheduled start, so management knew they were getting him.
Stranger things have happened, I guess. Kevin Jepsen is a shutdown reliever now, NBC is tape delaying Olympic events in 2012, someone decided a Total Recall remake was a good idea. But I would be shocked (SHOCKED) if Santana pitched well enough to put the Angels in a position to win tonight.
The Angels close the week with a weekend set on the south side of Chicago against the White Sox. Very few expected the Sox to contend this season, let alone be in first place on July 30. But here we are and the Sox are 1 ½ games ahead of preseason favorite Detroit. The Sox acquired Francisco Liriano in a “sure, why not” move over the weekend to help aid the Chris Sale led starting staff. Paul Konerko is an MVP candidate,*** Adam Dunn and Alex Rios are having amazing bounceback years after both were 2011 disasters, and Kevin Youkilis has given them an offensive jolt since his arrival from Boston a month ago (.393 July wOBA).
*** Konerko is one of those guys that gets killed by WAR and is an example of why it isn’t an end all stat like some people want it to be, as his current fWAR is only 2.3. His WAR is depressed because he’s a poor fielder (he should be a DH) and he’s slower than a Molina brother after a buffet. But you’d be hard pressed to find 5 better hitters in the game. Current slash: .330/.402/.528.
With the fifth best run scoring offense in the AL and a starting rotation led by Cy Young candidate Sale (2.81 FIP) and a resurgent Jake Peavy (3.32 FIP), the White Sox are going to be in the playoff discussion for the remainder of the year. If the Angels aren’t careful, the White Sox might even take one of those precious wild card spots.
Probable Pitchers, according to ESPN
Rangers
Monday: Ervin Santana (6.00 ERA, worse than Jose Cano) vs Roy Oswalt (5.22)
Tuesday: Jered Weaver (2.26) vs Derek Holland (4.74)
Wednesday: Dan Haren (4.59) vs Yu Darvish (4.05)
Thursday: CJ Wilson (2.88) vs Matt Harrison (3.19)
White Sox
Friday: Zack Greinke (3.39) vs Chris Sale (2.61).
Here’s my two cents on the Greinke trade, by the way: if he resigns (and whether it’s just player speak or a genuine opinion, Greinke said he would be open to signing with the Angels), it’s more than worth it. The Angels gave up three good prospects, but no studs, a price worth it for an ace pitcher that had a 9-win season not that long ago. Jean Segura was blocked by Erick Aybar and Howie Kendrick anyway, and John Hellweg and Ariel Pena were both good prospects but neither one were projected as top of the rotation guys. It’s more likely they end up in a bullpen somewhere. The bottom line is Jerry Dipoto acquired a front line pitcher and didn’t have to give up Peter Bourjos (a 5-win player with a bright future) or Garrett Richards (the team’s best young pitcher). With this trade, the Frieri trade, and the Trout/Richards graduations, the farm system is laughable now and that will need to be addressed starting with the 2013 draft. But the Angels went all in for the near future when they signed Wilson and Pujols. Why not throw in a couple more chips? Prospects are largely there to improve the big league club via trade, and Greinke certainly does that. And, again, if Greinke resigns (still only 28 with elite peripherals) then the package the Angels sent is a small price.
Saturday: Santana, assuming Texas doesn’t knock him to the bullpen vs Philip Humber (5.90)
Sunday: Weaver vs Gavin Floyd (4.28)
3 Bold Predictions for the week
1) Santana throws 5 perfect innings against the Rangers. Just kidding, he’s knocked out in the third inning.
2) Greinke beats Sale 2-1.
3) Vernon Wells hits a meaningless home run in Texas, prompting Scioscia to start him the next game. In that game, he will go 0-for-4 with 2 Ks, a pop up, and a GIDP.
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